Opportunities to increase rice exports in the context of global inflation

According to the General Department of Customs, in May, Vietnam's rice exports reached the highest level within a year with 710 thousand tons, worth 347 million USD, a sharp increase of 27.8% in volume and 25.8 %. % in value compared to April, up 13.5% in volume and 2.5% in value compared to May 2021.

Thanks to strong growth in May, in the first 5 months of this year, rice exports reached nearly 2.8 million tons, with a turnover of more than $ 1.3 billion, up 6.9% in volume and down 3.7% in volume. turnover over the same period in 2021.

In June, rice exports continued to grow strongly. From June 1-15, rice exports reached 346,231 tons, worth $171 million, up 90.59% in volume and 66.59% in value compared to the first half of May 2021. Accumulated rice exports to June 15 have reached over 3.1 million tons, worth more than $1.5 billion, up 12.3% in volume and 1.01% in value over the same period in 2021.

In the opinion of some food industry experts, food (including rice) is an essential commodity group, not only in Vietnam but also globally. Therefore, in the context of high inflation in Europe, the US is spreading to many countries around the world, the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Covid-19 epidemic is still complicated in many places... The world's rice consumption has not only not decreased but is likely to increase.

The proof is that in recent times, customers from many African countries are very interested in Vietnamese rice because they lack an important food supply from Eastern Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Information from the Philippine Department of Finance shows that, in the first 5 months of the year, the country imported 1.26 million tons of rice, up 43.3% over the same period in 2021. According to the China Customs, The country's rice imports in the first four months of 2022 hit a record 2.3 million tons, worth $957.7 million, up 17.7% in volume and 5.5% in value over the same period last year. .

What is remarkable in China's record rice imports in the first four months of this year is that cheap rice accounts for a large proportion. The reason why China has boosted the import of this type of rice is to use it as animal feed in the context that the prices of many feed materials such as corn, wheat, etc. have increased too high and the supply is tight due to the conflict. Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In Vietnam, information from some rice traders shows that the use of broken and low-grade rice products as animal feed is also increasing.

Thus, it can be seen that, in addition to the increased demand for use as food for humans, the use of low-grade rice as animal feed in many countries will also increase the demand for rice in general in the world. world.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that, with the increasing demand for rice from markets, Vietnam's rice exports will continue to increase sharply in the last months of the year, especially to the Philippines and China. The reason is that China's rice production has been reduced due to the effects of floods and the Philippines' rice stocks are falling sharply, requiring more imports.

From the sharp fluctuations in global rice demand, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that Vietnam's rice exports this year could reach over 6.4 million tons, 200,000-300,000 tons higher than in 2021.

According to , the production of winter-spring rice and summer-autumn crop in the Mekong Delta this year has been and is very stable. The forecast for the remaining rice crops in the year will also be good. This year, the Mekong Delta can win about 6.6 million tons of rice for export.

High-quality rice (specialty rice, fragrant rice, sticky rice, high-quality rice...) is estimated to account for over 90% of the total rice production in the Mekong Delta this year. Therefore, there is a question being raised that rice exports increased sharply in volume in the first 6 months of the year, but why did the turnover increase only very modestly, about 1%?

Many information stated that inflation, Russia-Ukraine conflict ... are increasing demand, increasing food prices globally, but in that, demand and export price of rice really increase or not? If increased, how much? These are questions that need to be clarified so that farmers do not race to produce rice, which can lead to excess rice production. (Mr. Le Thanh Tung, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production).