FISH TO 2030 - Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture

We have developed a rigorous analytical tool that is capable of making projections on the implications of the ongoing shifts on global fish production and reallocation of fish supply through international trade. The model, though with known limitations, is successfully calibrated and employed to evaluate different policies and alternative events and to illustrate likely evolution of the global seafood economy. From the modeling exercise and scenario analyses, it is clear that aquaculture will continue to fill the growing supply-demand gap in the face of rapidly expanding global i sh demand and relatively stable capture i sheries. While total i sh supply will likely be equally split between capture and aquaculture by 2030, the model predicts that 62 percent of food i sh will be produced by aquaculture by 2030.

Type Rice

Description

Foreword
Acknowledgments
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1. Motivations and Objective
1.2. Lessons from Fish to 2020
1.3. Strategy of Improving Modeling Framework in Fish to 2030
1.4. Policy Research Questions
Chapter 2: Preparing IMPACT Model for Fish to 2030
2.1. Basics of IMPACT Model
2.2. IMPACT Model Structure
2.3. Data Used and Parameter Specii cation
2.4. Establishing a Consistent Base-Year Picture
2.5. Assessing the Quality of Projections
2.6. Issues and Discussions
Technical Appendix
Chapter 3: IMPACT Projections to 2030 under the Baseline Specii cation
3.1. Production
3.2. Consumption
3.3. Trade and Prices
3.4. Fishmeal and Fish Oil
Technical Appendix
Chapter 4: IMPACT Projections to 2030 under Selected Scenarios
4.1. Scenario 1: Faster Aquaculture Growth
4.2. Scenario 2: Expanded Use of Fish Processing Waste in Fishmeal and Fish Oil Production

4.3. Scenario 3: A Major Disease Outbreak in Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia
4.4. Scenario 4: Accelerated Shift of Consumer Preferences in China
4.5. Scenario 5: Improvement of Capture Fisheries Productivity
4.6. Scenario 6: Impacts of Climate Change on the Productivity of Capture Fisheries
Chapter 5: Discussion
5.1. Main Findings from the Analysis
5.2. Discussion and Possible Future Directions
References

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