Severe drought, salinization forecast to continue in April

Heat and severe saltwater intrusion look set to continue to dominate Vietnam’s weather conditions next month, given the current impact of El Niño.

A drought-hit paddy field in Kien Giang Province, located in Vietnam's Mekong Delta.
 

The prediction by Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) was quoted by Nguyen Dang Quang, deputy chief of the Medium and Long Term

Meteorological Forecasting Division of NCHMF at El Niño Outlook Forum 2016 on Monday.

Although the phenomenon is expected to gradually recede this fall, average temperatures in northern Vietnam will be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius higher than over the same period in previous years, Quang said at the forum, held by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and NCHMF.

The situation is the same in the Central Highlands and the southern region, he said, adding that Vietnam has experienced heat waves sooner but less intensely than last year.

Quang noted that drought conditions along with salinization in the south-central, Central Highlands, and southern regions show no sign of declining but rather of being more severe in April.  

Thanks to El Niño, Vietnam will see fewer tropical cyclones this year compared to those in previous years, he added.

Trinh Thu Phuong, deputy chief of the Hydrological Forecasting Division N1, said that water volume in rivers in central Vietnam will decline by 30 to 50 percent, potentially leading to a scarcity between April and June.

Salt intrusion and water shortage could worsen as larger areas in the region are expected to be exposed to the conditions in comparison with the same period last year, while salinization is anticipated to penetrate further in southern areas during this coming dry season compared to the same period of last year.

Southern river salinity during late March is forecast to be the highest of the year, at 4g per liter on average, which is higher than the level it reached in 2015, Phuong added.

Lots of nations in Southeast Asia have suffered from extreme climate conditions linked to the El Niño phenomenon, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, ADPC’s program manager, stated at the forum.

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, according to the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

El Niño events occur irregularly at intervals of 2-7 years, although the average is about once every 3-4 years, lasting 12-18 months, NOAA said on its website.

In 2016, the phenomenon is predicted to be the strongest ever recorded, and is likely to cause extreme weather conditions across the globe, APDC’s News reported.

Communities in nations of the Asia-Pacific region are expected to be exposed to extreme heat, water shortages and the potential of disease, it added.

With regard to the incoming El Niño, Quang said that the effects of the phenomenon will gradually reduce, likely following a cold spell at the end of this year, which could potentially cause La Niña to occur.

Compared to El Niño, its counterpart, La Niña, is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, said NOAA.

Previously, to tackle drought and salinization in the Mekong Delta, one of Vietnam’s rice powerhouses, Laos and China agreed to discharge water from their dams to assist.

Khoa Le

Source: Tuoi Tre News