FAO forecasts a decline in global cereal production and consumption

 

The largest production decline is forecast for maize, followed by wheat and rice, while barley and sorghum production is likely to increase. FAO makes forecasts based on existing crop conditions and planting plans for those that have not yet been sown.

World cereal consumption is also forecast to decline slightly in 2022/23, about 0.1% from 2021/22 to 788 million tonnes, marking the first decline in 20 years. This decline is mainly due to a reduction in the use of animal feedstuffs such as wheat, coarse grains and rice, while global cereal consumption is expected to increase, keeping up with population trends. world number.

FAO forecasts world cereal trade to fall 2.6% year-on-year in 2021/22 to 463 million tonnes, the lowest level in three years, even as the outlook for world rice trade remains positive.

The new forecast shows a fall in inventories, resulting in world cereal stocks falling to 29.6% in 2022/23 from 30.5% in 2021/22. This would be a nine-year low, but still well above the 21.4% low registered in 2007/08. Falling corn stocks are expected to lead to a decline while wheat stocks are expected to increase.

The FAO also updated its estimate of a 0.9 percent increase in world cereal production for 2021 and a 1.1% increase in cereal consumption for 2021/22.