August 24, 2022
With the goal of exporting 6.3 million tons of rice in 2022, worth $3.3 billion, many agricultural experts believe that rice exports can completely "reach the target", even exceeding the set plan.
Rice exports reached nearly 4.08 million tons
According to preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, in July 2022, the whole country exported 582,635 tons of rice, equivalent to 285.28 million USD, the average price was 489.7 USD/ton, down nearly 20% in both volume and quantity. turnover, but the price increased slightly by 0.3% compared to June 2022; compared with July 2021, it increased sharply by 30.4% in volume, increased by 23% in turnover but decreased by 5.6% in price.
In the first 7 months of 2022, the country's rice exports reached nearly 4.08 million tons, equivalent to over 1.99 billion USD, up 17.3% in volume, up 6% in turnover compared to 07 months. In the first month of 2021, the average price reached 488.9 USD/ton, down 9.6%.
The top rice export markets of Vietnam in the first seven months of this year include the Philippines, Ivory Coast and China.
Accordingly, in July 2022, rice exports to the Philippines market reached 354,279 tons, worth $165,810 million, nearly doubling in volume and 1.93 times in turnover compared to July 2021. Generally, for 7 months, rice exports to this market reached 1,978,849 tons, worth US$924.875 million, up 55.72% in volume and 38.92% in turnover compared to the same period last year.
According to Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Chairman of the Board of Directors, General Director of Intimex Group, in the first 7 months of the year, rice exports to the Philippines increased sharply because they were worried that India would stop exporting rice. should promote buying rice from Vietnam. Although the volume of rice exports increased sharply, the turnover increased disproportionately, because traders forced prices and calculated that the price of rice exported to the Philippines decreased, not increased compared to the same period in 2021.
According to this expert, Filipinos are now very fond of Vietnamese rice Dai Thom 8 (DT8), because of its delicious quality and reasonable price, it is competitive, and importantly, only Vietnam can produce DT8. should dominate and keep a stable market share, although Thailand is "very hungry" but cannot compete with Vietnam's DT8 rice in this market.
The second is the Chinese market, although in July 2022 rice exports to this market fell sharply by 44.9% in volume and 41.7% in turnover compared to June 2022, reaching 27,617 tons, equivalent to 14.53 million USD; compared with July 2021, also strongly decreased by 55.5% in volume, down by 50.5% in turnover.
But in the first 7 months of 2022, rice exports to China accounted for over 11.4% of the total volume and 12.2% of the total turnover, reaching 466,225 tons, equivalent to USD 242.74 million, with an average price of 520 ,6 USD/ton, down 28% in both volume and value; prices decreased slightly by 1% over the same period in 2021.
Ranked third in the top rice export market of Vietnam in the first 7 months of this year is Ivory Coast, with July rice exports reaching 74,029 tons, worth 35,636 million USD, up 17.52 compared to July 2021. % in volume and 10.14% in turnover. Generally, in 7 months, it reached 396,759 tons, worth 177,702 million USD, up 48.29% in volume and 30.17% in turnover compared to the same period last year.
Rice exports may "reach the target" of 6.3 million tons
Currently, businesses are taking full advantage of the increased demand from the market to boost exports.
With the goal of exporting 6.3 million tons of rice in 2022, worth $3.3 billion, many agricultural experts believe that rice exports can completely "reach the target", even exceeding the plan proposed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. out. To do that, businesses need to fully exploit the advantages of price, market demand and market group.
Commenting on the prospect of rice exports in the coming time, Viet Rong Securities (VDSC) said that Vietnam's rice export output will continue to increase, when the demand for rice from the Philippines is increasing, along with the demand for imports. imported back from China.
Also according to VDSC, the gross profit margin of Vietnamese rice producers will improve thanks to the downward trend in fertilizer prices that will continue in the near future.
Since the beginning of 2022, the global food crisis, the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, the tension between Russia and Ukraine and the disruption of the global supply chain, has been one of the biggest concerns of the people. all around the world. Moreover, the sharp increase in wheat prices between June 2020 and May 2022 has led to a trend to use some cheaper rice foods to replace wheat. As a result, global rice demand has increased sharply in the first half of 2022.
Along with a sharp increase in input costs (eg fertilizer), the world rice price continued to increase in the first 5 months of 2022 after increasing strongly in the period of August 2020 and December 2021. Although global rice prices revised down in June; in parallel with Vietnam (the world's third largest rice exporter) the average export price of rice has moved in the opposite direction relative to global prices.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, in the last week of July, Vietnam's 5% broken rice price traded at $413/ton, $15/ton higher than Thai rice and $70 more than Indian rice/ton. tons, more than Pakistani rice 45 USD/ton.
For 25% broken rice, Vietnam's rice is at 393 USD/ton, 4 USD/ton higher than Thai rice of the same type, 65 USD/ton higher than Indian rice and 43 USD/ton higher than Pakistani rice.
Thus, the export price of Vietnam's rice is at the highest level in the group of major rice exporting countries in the world.
Three reasons for the growth of rice production
VDSC expects Vietnam's rice export output to continue to grow based on three main reasons:
Firstly, import demand from the Philippines - Vietnam's largest rice importer accounting for 43.6% of total export value in 5M2022 - is forecast to continue to increase. Rice consumption in the Philippines is increasing due to high wheat prices. Besides, rice production of the Philippines is forecasted to be flat (up 2% YoY according to USDA forecast) which has boosted import activities. Therefore, Vietnam, which accounts for more than 80% of the total market share of rice exports to the Philippines in the period 2021-2022, will benefit.
Second, China - Vietnam's second largest rice importer with 15% of total export value in the first five months of 2022 - is expected to return to import. In the past 5 months, exports to China decreased by 19.5% in both volume and value due to the country's Zero-Covid policy.
Although this policy has not been lifted, VDSC expects that China will return to importing rice more and more in the second half of the year. The main reason is that strict restrictions on movement in the context of the Covid-19 epidemic have caused disruption of spring agricultural production, thereby boosting rice and corn imports.
Third, rice exports to Europe are expected to increase sharply thanks to the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA). According to the commitment in the EVFTA, the EU will grant Vietnam an export quota of 80,000 tons of rice per year. Although rice imports from the EU only accounted for 0.5% of total export value in the first five months of 2022, there are very few enterprises that meet the standards to enter this market.
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